Just when you thought things were looking swell for PC gaming, a new report from respected Jon Peddie Research says up to 20 million PC gamers could “defect” to more fertile (or cheaper) pastures in the next five years.

The report cited growing competition from TV-based gaming platforms, whether they be new consoles or streaming gaming technologies such as Google’s Stadia. The report also predicts that stagnation in hardware development will contribute to the defection. And of course, a lack of game parity—where coveted titles never make it to the PC—has vexed the PC on occasion.

“We are observing a higher percentage of Low/Mid-Range PC products sold because of the consumer’s intent to use with games,” said JPR’s Ted Pollack. “This, unfortunately, does not generate more volume but does guide research and design as well as marketing investments for hardware providers and foreshadows the ultimate use model of the PC, a desktop ergonomic gaming/computing environment that embraces user choice and customization. Gaming services used with TV displays, whether local or cloud-based, will absorb PC defectors and likely flourish with new entrants. In the next five years, we will see potential customers with access to TV gaming swell by hundreds of millions.”

It sounds alarming, but before you run to your EATX-sized bunker and begin stockpiling CPUs and GPUs for the coming end times, you need to look at the numbers in context. In an interview with PCWorld, Pollack said people should realize that 20 million switchers would be a relatively small percentage of today’s PC gamers.





Indeed, Pollack told PCWorld that 20 million is just 3 percent of the estimated 550 million people who “game” on PCs. And that 550 million is a conservative estimate—other analysts estimate as many as 1.3 billion PC gamers. As difficult as that is to believe.

Pollack said JPR defines the overall market as anyone who games on the PC. That includes playing Shadow of the Tomb Raider on SLI GeForce RTX 2080 TI at 4K to someone playing a Flash game on a Core 2 Duo.

So, yes, Reddit and IGN comment sections: Stop with the hyper-ventilating.

Still, Pollack said, even though 20 million people is a small percentage of 550 million, it’s an indication of softness in the PC gaming market and coming threats. “The platform is definitely not dying,” Pollack said, “but it has definitely peaked.”


This story, “Report: 20 million PC gamers may ‘defect’ to TV gaming in next 5 years” was originally published by PCWorld.